Write the idea as a falsifiable claim about one customer, problem, offer, price and channel. Check demand, market size, saturation and alternatives using reliable sources; interview people who recently faced the problem; then present a real offer and ask for a meaningful commitment such as a paid pilot, deposit, qualified introduction or scheduled onboarding. Model delivery costs and decide the pass, change and stop thresholds before seeing the result.
Reviewed for material changes on August 13, 2026
Turn the idea into something that can be wrong
Write one sentence: We believe this specific customer will choose this offer at this price through this channel because it solves this costly problem better than their current alternative. Replace any word that could describe half the population.
Choose the riskiest assumption. It may be that the problem is frequent, the buyer controls a budget, the product can be delivered profitably or the audience can be reached. Test that assumption before polishing the parts everybody already agrees with.
Use desk research to size the question
Look for evidence of demand, market size, geography, economic constraints, saturation and current pricing. The SBA recommends combining existing sources with direct customer research: public data answers broad quantifiable questions, while direct research gives detail about your particular audience.
Map direct and indirect alternatives, including spreadsheets, agencies, doing nothing and internal labour. Read complaints and switching stories, but do not turn a loud online minority into a market estimate.
Interview past behaviour, not your pitch
Find people who encountered the problem recently. Ask what triggered it, what they tried, who decided, how long it took, what it cost and what happened. Specific past events are more useful than a hypothetical opinion about your future product.
Do not spend the interview explaining the idea. Keep a consistent question set, write down exact phrases and look for repeated behaviour across people—not compliments to the interviewer.
- When did this last happen?
- What did you do first?
- Which alternatives did you consider or pay for?
- Who else was involved in the decision?
- What made the problem urgent—or safe to ignore?
Ask for the smallest commitment that resembles the business
For a service, sell a narrow paid pilot. For a physical product, test a small batch or clearly described preorder only when you can meet the applicable sales, delivery and refund rules. For software, a concierge version can deliver the outcome manually before the full system exists. A landing page can qualify interest, but an email alone is weaker evidence than money or scheduled work.
State honestly what exists, what the customer receives and when. FTC guidance says US advertising claims and material disclosures must be truthful and clear online; other markets have their own rules. Do not present a concept render as a shipping product or hide conditions after the call to action.
Check whether demand can become a business
Estimate the selling price, direct fulfilment, payment fees, support, refunds and the time required to win a customer. Separate one-time setup from monthly costs and calculate how many sales cover them. A popular offer with no workable margin has validated a problem, not a company.
Note which costs are observed and which are guesses. Get supplier quotes or run one manual delivery where possible. The purpose is not a perfect five-year model; it is to expose an assumption that makes every sale lose money.
Make the decision you wrote before the test
Set thresholds in advance: for example, a number of qualified conversations, paid pilots at a stated price, an acquisition-cost ceiling or a delivery-time limit. When the test ends, choose go, change or stop and record the evidence behind it.
A failed test is useful if it isolates why: wrong audience, mild problem, weak channel, poor offer or broken economics. Change one important assumption and run a new bounded test. Do not keep changing the scoreboard until the result looks encouraging.
Sources and checks
Product limits and prices came from the companies themselves:
- U.S. Small Business Administration: market research and competitive analysis
- U.S. Small Business Administration: write your business plan
- U.S. Small Business Administration: calculate startup costs
- Federal Trade Commission: online advertising and marketing
Plans move. We date every check so you know when to verify again.